GRAIN investigates how nodes in our global trade system can build up stockpiles, anticipate failsafes, and invest to enable long-term resilience.

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As a toolkit of futures methods and resilience, GRAIN outlines how commercial policy can be synergic, with key commodities as exemplars. The report presents mission-oriented solutions to complexity, bolstering ‘nodes of persisting recovery’.

We present a horizon scan of global catastrophic risks, with an emphasis on new and neglected tipping points with cascade potential.
 

25 experts presented 96 concerns, which were narrowed down to 15 for discussion. We outline paths to use our findings for prevention, mitigation, and adaptation.

Our paper on modelling trade chokepoints for resilience to GCRs, especially nuclear, with applicability for asteroid, and volcanic reduced sunlight conditions.

Accepted to Session ITS3.2/ERE6.12 Interdisciplinary approaches bridging geoscience and humanities in times of conflict and peace.

Our White Paper outlines an innovative approach that combines horizon scanning, Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU), and deliberative democracy to address civilisational risks. We call this the Odyssean Process.

A concise edition of our White Paper for the time-pressed reader.

Our first peer-reviewed publication, accepted by the Royal Society Open Science, on a Master Equation for Power Laws, with applications for conflict dynamics and system dynamical thresholds, such as the emergence of solar flares.