This report addresses the systemic, second-order impacts of a nuclear strike, beyond immediate destruction to explore cascading consequences for food systems, supply chains, and social stability. Drawing on a structured horizon scan and a ‘Horizon Summit’ with eight experts, the study outlines vulnerabilities and actionable policy pathways to safeguard civilisational resilience.

Balzer and Michael propose a novel analytical framework to bridge the gap between local epistemologies and technocratic financing for non-economic loss and damage (NELD) in the Pacific. Focusing on Vanuatu, the paper integrates policy translation and anticipatory governance to better inform financing modalities, fostering long-term systemic change in complex socio-political contexts.

Burton et al present a methodology for uncertainty analysis in climate policy modelling using emulators. The authors find that reducing lead times and phasing out fossil fuels are critical for faster, more robust power sector transitions globally and in India.

GRAIN investigates how nodes in our global trade system can build up stockpiles, anticipate failsafes, and invest to enable long-term resilience.
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As a toolkit of futures methods and resilience, GRAIN outlines how commercial policy can be synergic, with key commodities as exemplars. The report presents mission-oriented solutions to complexity, bolstering ‘nodes of persisting recovery’.

We present a horizon scan of global catastrophic risks, with an emphasis on new and neglected tipping points with cascade potential.
 

25 experts presented 96 concerns, which were narrowed down to 15 for discussion. We outline paths to use our findings for prevention, mitigation, and adaptation.

Our paper on modelling trade chokepoints for resilience to GCRs, especially nuclear, with applicability for asteroid, and volcanic reduced sunlight conditions.

The work was published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science on the 5th of August, 2025.

Our White Paper outlines an innovative approach that combines horizon scanning, Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU), and deliberative democracy to address civilisational risks. We call this the Odyssean Process.

A concise edition of our White Paper for the time-pressed reader.

Our first peer-reviewed publication, accepted by the Royal Society Open Science, on a Master Equation for Power Laws, with applications for conflict dynamics and system dynamical thresholds, such as the emergence of solar flares.