By identifying 'nodes of persisting complexity', we work to encourage mutually beneficial networks to build resilience globally. By focusing on food security, building on the excellent work of organisations such as ALLFED, we aim to strengthen food security against global catastrophes. By also identifying key institutional or technical bases for recovery from catastrophe, we also aim to strengthen adaptive capacity. GRAIN represents an informal diplomatic network to build these pathways.
Horizon Scan Pilot Study
We are developing a pilot study for the first phase of our Odyssean Process. This will involve a horizon scan of experts in the fields of complex, systemic, and civilisational-scale risks. The resuts, highlighting key uncertainties, emerging trens, and opportunities for mitigation, will be written up as a peer-reviewed paper. This will then inform the modelling and public deliberation to follow, generating firm grounds for resilient policy made robustly.
Amazon Tipping Points Assembly
The Amazon provides a unique challenge for global resilience, in that it is a key climate tipping point with varied actors vying to exploit or preserve it. The Odyssean Process can add value to existing conservation efforts without neglecting the need for a just transition for those dependent on development of it economically. We aim to convene an assembly combining many stakeholders to encourage multi-level multi-risk policy making around this. The aim is to avoid worst case scenarios here, such as it collapsing into savannah - with dire implicaions for global climate stability and the long rerm future.
With a rise in global tensions among nuclear-armed nations and recent withdrawals from arms control treaties coupled with increased deployment of AI in Autonomous Weapon Systems, work on preventative and recovery measures in an event of a large nuclear war have once again become a global priority. A nuclear winter resulting from a large-scale nuclear war poses an existential threat to global civilisation.
However, the precise mechanisms and vulnerabilities in post-nuclear trade and supply chains are poorly understood. We are working on developing sophisticated modelling of the complex dynamics of trade network disruption and recovery.
EU Resilience Assembly
The EU Commission, with a focus at the level of Joint Research Committee on foresight and exporatory modelling, is a potentially very high impact regulatory environment. Developing policy that takes network dynamics, tipping points, capturing vital nuances through deliberation, can build on recent work by Myriad-EU, for eample. By better preparing for catastrophes at this regional scale, we aim to have substantial positive impact through the 'Brussels Effect' setting best practice globally through policy diffusion.
Assembly AI Foresight
As part of our varied methods for improving decision making, we have an ongoing assembly proposal to add value to emerging technologies policy making. AI safety regulation informed by cutting edge foresight and key values from public deliberation will help generate adaptive pathways to keep pace with emerging trends.