Identifying 'nodes of persisting complexity', encourages mutually beneficial networks to build resilience globally. For this project, we built on the excellent work conducted by organisations such as ALLFED, with the goal of strengthening food security against global catastrophes. By identifying key institutional or technical bases for recovery from catastrophe, we aim to strengthen adaptive capacity. GRAIN represents an informal diplomatic network to build these pathways. 

A pilot study for the first phase of our Odyssean Process. This involved a horizon scan of experts in the fields of complex, systemic, and civilisational-scale risks. The results, highlighting key uncertainties, emerging trends, and opportunities for mitigation, are discussed in A Horizon Scan of Global Catastrophic Risks. These findings will inform the modelling and public deliberation to follow, generating firm grounds for resilient policy made robustly.

As part of our varied methods for improving decision making, we have an ongoing assembly proposal to add value to emerging technologies policy making. AI safety regulation informed by cutting edge foresight and key values from public deliberation will help generate adaptive pathways to keep pace with emerging trends.

With a rise in global tensions among nuclear-armed nations, recent withdrawals from arms control treaties, and increased deployment of AI in Autonomous Weapon Systems, work on preventative and recovery measures in an event of a large nuclear war have once again become a global priority. A nuclear winter resulting from a large-scale nuclear war poses an existential threat to global civilisation. 

The precise mechanisms and vulnerabilities in post-nuclear trade and supply chains are poorly understood. We are working on developing sophisticated modelling of the complex dynamics of trade network disruption and recovery.

The EU Commission, with a focus at the level of Joint Research Committee on foresight and exploratory modelling, is a potentially very high impact regulatory environment. Developing policy that takes network dynamics, tipping points, capturing vital nuances through deliberation, can build on recent work by Myriad-EU, for example. By better preparing for catastrophes at this regional scale, we aim to have substantial positive impact through the 'Brussels Effect' setting best practice globally through policy diffusion.